Gaspar chips away at Roberts’ lead in County Supervisor Race

County Supervisor candidate Kristin Gaspar at Golden Hall on Nov. 9.
(Hayne Palmour IV/San Diego Union-Tribune)

As more votes get counted, Encinitas Mayor Kristen Gaspar is cutting into incumbent Dave Roberts’ lead in the race for San Diego County Supervisor.

Initial counts on Nov. 9 had Roberts ahead by around 2,200 votes with 620,000 mail and provisional ballots left to be counted by the San Diego Registrar of Voters.

However, an update on Nov. 15 showed Roberts with 50.53 percent of the vote and Gaspar closing in with 49.47. With just under 400,000 ballots still needing to be counted, Roberts leads Gaspar by 1,735 votes.

At one point, Roberts lead with 50.9 percent.

The standings in races sometimes fluctuate as votes are counted and in some cases the leader changes. In 2012, Scott Peters was a port commissioner trying to unseat 12-year-incumbent Rep. Brian Bilbray. Early returns put Bilbray in the lead with 51.6 percent, but by the time votes were counted, the standing had flipped and Peters won the seat with 51.2 percent of the vote.

While it’s certainly possible for final results to differ from early returns, Gaspar’s campaign manager Jason Roe has said that Democrats tend to prevail 75 percent of the time in subsequent vote counts.

— San Diego Union-Tribune writer Joshua Stewart contributed to this report